Huaan Futures: Aluminium Early Review on April 14

【Market Analysis】: The aluminum price continued to rebound slightly yesterday, closing at 21,285 yuan/ton. At present, the factors affecting the short-term and medium-to-long-term aluminum prices remain, but the domestic fundamental supply increases and the demand decrease passively. First of all, the long-term factors are concentrated in the outside world. With the continuation of the Ukrainian-Russian war and the deepening of sanctions in the United States and Europe, the energy price will remain high when the EU has not found an energy solution.

Electrolytic aluminum is a “solidified form” of energy. Overseas electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, which will open a window period for domestic exports. As this state continues, it will also affect domestic aluminum prices for a long time. The short-term factors are concentrated in China. The epidemic control has led to the obstruction of transportation. Many aluminum processing manufacturers cannot ship out the terminal products, resulting in a forced reduction in demand. The supply side: due to the high profit, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production is still in progress.

The production of 810,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum was resumed, of which 250,000 tons were newly put into production, mainly in Yunnan, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, and other places. At the same time, the support of the power policy will also promote the release of production capacity in the second quarter, and the supply is still gradually rising. To sum up, there is support at the bottom of the market, but short-term rising factors cannot be observed, and the internal contradiction between supply and demand may further suppress aluminum prices. In terms of basis: the main contract, Shengshui Shanghai Nonferrous Metals (99.7%) aluminum ingot price is 40 yuan/ton.